Catalina Lauf is leading a wide open race to succeed Rep. Byron Donalds (R., Fla.) with only a week to go, according to Lauf’s polling that was obtained exclusively by the Washington Reporter.
In an interview with the Reporter, Lauf previously described the race as a two-person race between her and Jim Schwartzel, and a Cygnal poll commissioned by Lauf’s campaign supports her assertion, although there remains a sky-high amount of undecided voters.
Cygnal’s poll, which was conducted between August 5 – August 6, found that Lauf leads the full ten-candidate field with 18 percent. Schwartzel and former Illinois state Senator Jim Oberweis are tied at 14 percent. A full 36 percent of 403 likely GOP voters remained undecided, the poll found.
But when Cygnal forced respondents to choose between the five leading candidates, Lauf extended her lead to 20 percent, while Schwartzel rose to 16 percent and Oberweis ticked up to 15 percent.
The polling trends in Florida’s 19th District also give Lauf reason to be confident heading into the home stretch; as voters tune into the race more, the percentage of undecided voters has dropped, and Lauf’s campaign believes that she is capturing virtually all of their support. She is helped in that respect by having the best image of the GOP field among Republican voters and by having the staunchest support among those who have made up their minds.
Lauf’s own polling is complemented by public polling; one poll conducted by Victory Insights shows that Lauf and Schwartzel virtually tied.
“Lauf is the big winner since our last poll from mid-June,” Victory Insights wrote in its separate polling memo. “She has risen from 5% to 19%, jumping from fourth place to second place, largely due to a surge in support from MAGA Republicans. Lauf now sits statistically tied with Schwartzel, who narrowly led our last poll as well. Oberweis has made virtually no progress since June and remains in the low double digits.”
“If previous FL-19 races have taught us anything, it’s that peaking at the right time is of the utmost importance,” Victory Insights’s memo adds. “One could argue that Lauf’s well-timed rise is reminiscent of Byron Donalds’ late surge in the 2020 primary election for FL-19. However, 11 days is a long time in the world of politics, and Lauf could crash as quickly as she rose. With 25% of voters still undecided and no candidate above 20%, this race remains winnable for any of the serious contenders.”
In the race’s home stretch, Lauf rolled out endorsements from Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R., Fla.), Eli Crane (R., Ariz.), Greg Steube (R., Fla.), and Kat Cammack (R., Fla.).
