Business has been booming for Kalshi ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, but the prediction markets company told the Washington Reporter that it anticipates that the 2028 elections will be their biggest succeed yet.
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s CEO, spoke with reporters about a new suite of tools and transparency measures his company is taking as Americans prepare to head to the polls. But what his company’s officials told the Reporter about 2028 stood out.
“For the 2028 presidential market, I would definitely say upwards of $10 billion, and probably much, much more than that,” Ben Freeman, Kalshi’s head of politics, told the Reporter.
“With our total trading volume for 2028 markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential market, that’s at around $232 million, which is pretty high,” Freeman explained, noting that the volume on the GOP prediction markets side pales in comparison.
“On the Republican side, it’s around $60 to 68 million, which is also pretty high, but it’s lower than the total midterms volume of $839 million,” Freeman added. “Guessing what volume will be like over the next two years is obviously pretty difficult, but we anticipate it growing very, very quickly, and I think we also anticipate a lot of institutional volume with hedging and a lot more hedge funds and financial institutions to be players in those markets. I could definitely see it being in the multi billions of dollars. I think our 2024 market was right at around $500 million, and that was only with one month of trading volume.”
Elsewhere in the call with reporters, Mansour laid out why his company views the 2026 midterm elections as so important for the future of political prediction markets: “we always had the belief, the very strong belief, that these election markets are too important to give up on, and this is a very special moment and time for us because we’re very excited to yet again showcase the power of these markets in what feels, in some ways, like the first meaningful prediction market election.”
As of time of publication, Vice President JD Vance is the likeliest next president, followed by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D., Ga.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.).
