EXCLUSIVE: Rep. Gabe Evans holds narrow lead in key Colorado battleground despite tough environment for Republicans

Republican Rep. Gabe Evans (R., Co.) is holding a narrow lead in one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country, according to a new poll obtained by the Washington Reporter, even as voters express dissatisfaction with the direction of the country and President Donald Trump runs underwater in the district.

The survey of 400 likely voters in Colorado’s 8th Congressional District found Evans leading Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel 48% to 46.3%, with 5.7% undecided. The Sept. 16-17 survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. 

A Republican operative in D.C. told the Reporter, “It’s a tough environment but it’s no surprise that Gabe Evans is still leading. He’s one of the most effective Congressmen, he’s been a champion since day one for lower costs, and he is obsessed with fighting for his district. This race is likely to be one of our bright spots on election night.” 

The numbers suggest Evans remains highly competitive in a district Democrats have targeted as one of their best opportunities to pick up a Republican-held seat this November. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race a “Toss Up” and gives the district an even partisan voting index. 

Evans narrowly flipped the seat in 2024, defeating Democratic incumbent Yadira Caraveo by 2,449 votes, 49% to 48.2%. Democrats quickly made winning the seat back a priority, and Rutinel easily won a crowded Democratic primary in June. 

The latest polling shows why the race is likely to remain closely watched.

More than 60% of voters in the district say the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared with just 33.6% who say it is headed in the right direction. 

Trump is also underwater in the district. The survey found 50.8% of voters disapprove of both Trump and his policies, while 46.8% either approve of Trump and his policies or disapprove of him personally but support many of his policies. 

Yet Evans is running ahead of that political backdrop.

When voters were initially asked whether they would support a generic Republican or Democrat for Congress, Republicans held a nearly identical 47% to 46.6% edge. When given the candidates’ names, Evans’ support increased to 48%, while Rutinel received 46.3%. 

Rutinel also remains less defined with voters. Nearly one-third of voters, 31%, either have no opinion of the Democrat or have never heard of him. Evans is much better known, with fewer than 9% saying the same about the incumbent. Both candidates currently have net-negative favorability ratings. 

The survey also found an opening for Republicans on health care, a major issue in congressional campaigns this year. Given a choice between a Republican candidate supporting price transparency, more patient choice, and accountability for insurers, and a Democratic candidate supporting a national government-run health care system and increased Affordable Care Act funding, voters preferred the Republican 49.9% to 44.8%. 

Health care costs have emerged as a major issue in competitive House and Senate races nationally this fall, with candidates in both parties focusing heavily on insurers and other health care interests. 

The poll comes as Republicans face broader headwinds heading into the November midterms, including concerns about the economy and declining enthusiasm among some GOP voters. Recent reporting has documented Republican candidates in competitive races navigating voter dissatisfaction with the administration on issues including tariffs, immigration and the economy. 

Colorado’s 8th District has been competitive since it was created after the 2020 census. Democrat Yadira Caraveo won it by less than one percentage point in 2022 before Evans captured it by an similarly narrow margin two years later. 

With six weeks remaining before Election Day, the new survey shows little daylight between the parties in the district. But for Evans, simply remaining neck-and-neck in a seat Democrats have made a top target is an indication that the freshman Republican enters the final stretch with a viable path to retaining his seat.