EXCLUSIVE: New Senate poll shows massive support for Trump home-sale capital gains plan

A new national poll shared exclusively with the Washington Reporter shows broad voter support for President Donald Trump’s consideration of indexing capital gains taxes to inflation, adding momentum to a proposal supporters say could lower taxes on homeowners and help increase the supply of homes for sale.

The GrayHouse survey, conducted on behalf of the Senate Republican Conference, found 49 percent of voters support the proposal, compared to 26 percent who oppose it, a 23-point margin. Another 25 percent said they were unsure. That is nearly 2-1 support for the proposal which advocates say would increase the supply of homes for sale and lower home costs.

Support was strongest among Republicans, with 68 percent backing the proposal and just 9 percent opposed, for a net support of 59 points.

But the proposal also received plurality support across party lines. Independents backed the idea 44 percent to 38 percent, while Democrats supported it 37 percent to 34 percent.

The survey of 1,304 likely voters was conducted Sept. 9-11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. GrayHouse conducted the poll for the Senate Republican Conference.

The question told respondents that Trump is considering indexing capital gains taxes to inflation and presented supporters’ argument that doing so would prevent homeowners from being taxed on gains attributable to inflation, encourage more homeowners to sell and potentially increase housing supply.

The results come as Trump and his administration consider changes to the tax treatment of home sales as part of a broader effort to address housing affordability.

As the Reporter previously reported, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has said Trump is considering capital gains relief for homeowners. Former NEC Director Larry Kudlow has said he personally discussed both indexing capital gains for inflation and increasing the home-sale exclusion with Trump.

“I spoke to him, he liked the idea of the indexing, he liked the idea of a bigger exemption,” Kudlow said.

Under current law, homeowners can generally exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains from the sale of a primary residence, or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly. Those thresholds were established in 1997 and have never been indexed for inflation, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The latest numbers also reinforce earlier polling obtained by the Reporter showing substantial support for changing the tax treatment of home sales. An April survey conducted for the American Property Owners Alliance found 82 percent of likely voters supported adjusting the existing capital gains exclusion on home sales to account for inflation. That survey found support above 80 percent among Republicans, Democrats and independents.

Republicans on Capitol Hill have increasingly embraced the issue. Reps. Mark Alford (R., Mo.), Tracey Mann (R., Kan.) and Republican Study Committee Chairman August Pfluger (R., Texas) urged Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this year to index capital gains for inflation, arguing that taxpayers should not owe taxes on nominal gains caused solely by inflation.

Rep. Claudia Tenney (R., N.Y.), a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, also told the Reporter last month that she supports Trump’s push for capital gains relief on home sales.

The new GrayHouse poll is particularly notable because affordability remains voters’ dominant concern. In another portion of the same survey previously reported exclusively by the Reporter, affordability won 85 percent of its head-to-head matchups against other issues, ahead of jobs and the economy at 70 percent.

Taken together, the polling shows that a tax proposal Trump is considering to address housing costs has support beyond the Republican base, with pluralities of Republicans, independents and Democrats backing the idea.