ANALYSIS: How Sen. Darline Graham pulled off the win

When this race started, some very smart Republican political operatives told us Darline Graham could not win. They weren’t working for either campaign. 

The case against Graham was that she was brand new to politics. She was running against a longtime conservative incumbent with ties to the base. And if the race went to a runoff, they argued, turnout would fall and the most committed base voters would make up an even larger share of the electorate.

But Senator Graham did indeed pull it off. 

President Donald Trump’s endorsement was a major factor. She also benefited from support from some of the most respected Republicans in the Senate, including Sens. Tim Scott (R., S.C.), Tom Cotton (R., Ark.) and John Barrasso (R., Wyo.) 

But Graham also ran an effective race and showed she is an adept politician, despite being brand new to the space. 

Here’s how we think she did it.

First, Graham stayed disciplined on issues that mattered to Republican voters.

Look at her interview with the Washington Reporter. We asked Graham about Sen. Dick Durbin’s push to close immigration detention centers. Graham came out swinging in defense of immigration enforcement to keep South Carolina safe. 

That is a good general-election issue. It is an even better Republican primary issue. Republican voters overwhelmingly support immigration enforcement, and Graham made clear very quickly that she understood that being strong on immigration enforcement is a winner. .

She did the same thing on China.

When we asked Graham about Chinese influence and fentanyl-laced vapes reaching American kids, she again gave a clear answer. She called for protecting American infrastructure, cracking down on Chinese espionage and intellectual property theft, securing supply chains and disrupting the flow of fentanyl.

Graham also found an effective argument against her opponent.

Her “more in 20 days than 20 years” line worked because voters saw that it was true. 

Rep. Ralph Norman (R., S.C.) is a good man and a solid conservative. He has spent years fighting for conservative causes. But he has often been more of a fighter than a doer.

Graham turned that into the central contrast of the race: Norman had been around for years. She was new, energetic and already getting things done.

That is a difficult argument for a longtime incumbent to answer.

“Senator Graham has displayed grit and grace after being thrown unexpectedly into deep-end of politics,” Senate expert Mike Fragoso told the Washington Reporter. “She shows an intuitive understanding of the needs of regular people in a way only a real outsider can, and clearly enjoys getting to know and serve her neighbors. That common touch is something you have, not something you learn, and Senator Graham has it in spades.”

Senator Graham showed in a tough campaign that she has leadership skills. These skils will serve her and South Carolina well as she represents the state in the Senate.