EXCLUSIVE: "It wasn’t just an election — it was a reckoning": How Poland's Trump-backed candidate won the presidency

THE LOWDOWN:

• The odds were against Polish conservatives in the runup to Poland’s runoff election. Initial exit polls showed that the liberal candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, was poised to narrowly defeat the conservative Karol Nawrocki, who had scored backing from top Trump administration figures.

• While Poland’s media was almost exclusively in the tank for Trzaskowski, newer outlets like TV Republika balanced the scales out for Nawrocki, even going so far as to host the first-ever Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) days before millions of Poles headed to the polls.

• Due to the narrow nature of Nawrocki’s victory, many can claim their actions were decisive. However, the involvement of American conservatives in the final days of Poland’s election was undeniable and could have proved pivotal.

• Matthew Tyrmand, a Polish-American journalist, explained that Nawrocki’s last-minute success had to do with both the failures of Poland’s liberal prime minister, Donald Tusk, as well as the broader failures that Poles are seeing from Western Europe.

WARSAW — The odds were against Polish conservatives in the runup to Poland’s runoff election. Initial exit polls showed that the liberal candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, was poised to narrowly defeat the conservative Karol Nawrocki, who had scored backing from top Trump administration figures.

Beyond just the exit polls, political gamblers were quite literally betting against Nawrocki. Polymarket showed him with a slim chance to win the election until after the polls closed when he surged to a near-lock.

While Poland’s media was almost exclusively in the tank for Trzaskowski, newer outlets like TV Republika balanced the scales out for Nawrocki, even going so far as to host the first-ever Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) days before millions of Poles headed to the polls.

Due to the narrow nature of Nawrocki’s victory, many can claim their actions were decisive. However, the involvement of American conservatives in the final days of Poland’s election was undeniable and could have proved pivotal.

Top Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) wrote to Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, about concerns regarding the European Union’s (EU) “selective enforcement” of its policies that they argued was, in essence, an in-kind contribution to Trzaskowski.

During CPAC, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem told the audience that President Donald Trump wants Nawrocki in office.

“Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol, if you make him the leader of this country,” Noem said. Weeks prior, Trump hosted the first-time Polish candidate for a much-coveted White House meeting.

Matthew Tyrmand, a Polish-American journalist, explained that Nawrocki’s last-minute success had to do with both the failures of Poland’s liberal prime minister, Donald Tusk, as well as the broader failures that Poles are seeing from Western Europe.

“The plebiscite just completed whereby Nawrocki was elected president marks a shift back toward conservative values in the electoral sentiment of the Polish people — they do not want Euro-pliant governance, but instead to be governed by those who put Poland and Poles first,” Tyrmand told the Washington Reporter, echoing the Polish version of one of Trump’s most memorable phrases.

While several right-wing candidates have fallen short in recent weeks both in Europe and across the world, Nawrocki’s win mirrored Trump’s in many ways — including his focus on stopping illegal immigration, how the media relentlessly attacked them both, and how both Nawrocki and Trump saw a surge in support from young voters.

Michał Moskal, one of Poland’s youngest elected officials, told the Reporter that “in Poland, as in America, it wasn’t just an election — it was a reckoning.”

“Donald Tusk’s liberal-left government, in its globalist rush, managed what no conservative ever could: it radicalized an entire generation, to the right and toward the truth,” Moskal said. “Young Poles, who were expected to be complacent and grateful for rainbow posters and EU slogans, simply refused. Refused to be patronized, deceived, lied to, and sold out. They rebelled.”

Nawrocki’s victory puts a wrench in the Polish left’s plans: while Prime Minister Tusk’s position itself is more powerful, Nawrocki will be able to veto many of his priorities.

Adrian Kubicki, one of the lead organizers of Poland’s CPAC, told the Reporter that “Mr. Nawrocki is an ultimate conservative leader who will work hard every day to deliver every promise he made during the campaign. His victory is a beacon of hope for the entire Europe, that it is not too late to return to the most important values which Europe was built upon: family, faith and free and sovereign nations.”

Looking ahead, Tusk, for his part, already said he anticipates a parliamentary vote of confidence to be held soon, but Tyrmand said that is a decision that Tusk could regret.

“After 18 months of a Tusk government doing many of the things they said specifically they would not be doing when they were on the campaign trail in 2023 — such as aligning with the EU and von der Leyen on the migration pact — they will not get the necessary support needed to extend their mandate to govern. I could see this government falling by the end of the year and seeing snap elections held. … The Tusk government only won its late 2023 mandate due to [conservative Law and Justice] fatigue after two terms and eight years of their unilateral rule but now that shoe has quickly been shifted to the other foot.”

With a conservative win, Poland’s Law and Justice members are eager to look to the future.

“Now there’s a spark in the darkness,” the 31-year-old Moskal said. “A new hope —young, sharp-eyed, and done being fooled. A generation that has seen the mask slip from the radical left and declared: ‘Not in my country.’”