EXCLUSIVE: Polling and Democratic infighting give Republican Kurt Alme early lead in Montana Senate race

As the battle for the Senate shapes up in 2026, Republicans in Montana have received multiple spates of good news in recent weeks as they work to hold the seat of retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R., Mont.). 

According to a poll conducted by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) that was obtained exclusively by the Washington Reporter, Republican nominee Kurt Alme is favored to win in November no matter who he runs against.

Montana is one of a series of states where Democrats are attempting to replace their party’s nominee with an independent candidate. In Montana, the Democrats’ nominee is Alani Bankhead, but the Reporter previously reported that Seth Bodnar, who is running as an independent in the race, has deep ties to national Democrats — who are deeply unpopular in Montana.

The NRSC poll has Alme leading in a three-way race between him, Bodnar, and Bankhead. Alme also leads both Bodnar and Bankhead in traditional head-to-head races. In a three-way race, Alme leads with 45 percent. Bankhead comes in second with 30 percent, and Bodnar trails with 15 percent. In a head-to-head with Bodnar, Alme leads with 50 percent to Bodnar’s 43 percent. And in a matchup against Bankhead, Alme leads with 49 percent to Bankhead’s 46 percent.

The Reporter previously covered Bankhead’s surge in polling, and how it could jeopardize Bodnar’s viability in the race; one Montana source told the Reporter that “people are seeing a path for [Bankhead] because of Bodnar’s underperformance. If you talk to folks on the ground in Montana, they are starting to feel Bankhead is a superior candidate to Bodnar.”

Another well-connected Montana Republican operative told the Reporter that “Seth Bodnar’s continued presence in this race is helping Kurt Alme tremendously; Bodnar is causing so much damage to Alani that it’s almost like he is our plant in the race.”

Despite Bankhead’s relative strength in polling compared to Bodnar, there is a lot of pressure on her to withdraw from the race. In Idaho, the Democratic nominee, David Roth, recently ended his bid to challenge Sen. Jim Risch (R., Idaho) in order to cede the race to an independent candidate, Todd Achilles — who was previously elected as a Democrat.

The Democratic Party’s establishment is sending clear signals to Bankhead that it would prefer that she follow Roth’s lead. One of the top executives at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) recently dismissed her candidacy outright. “The DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Bankhead herself reiterated her refusal to exit from the race, but Montana Republicans are working to ensure that no matter what she does, Alme will face a Democratic opponent and Bodnar.

Montana Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen, a Republican, said that even if Bankhead does withdraw from the race, she will need to be replaced by another Democrat.

“The Secretary took an oath to uphold the law, and Montana law plainly states that if a party’s candidate withdraws, that political party shall appoint a replacement. That’s the law, not a suggestion. We’re not interested in political games,” a Jacobsen spokesperson said.