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Polls pour cold water on Democrats’ House offensive

Democrats have canceled ad buys worth more than seven figures in Wisconsin, Montana, and Pennsylvania, as polls show the party’s dwindling shot at winning House races in those states. Reps. Bryan Steil (R., Wis.), Ryan Zinke (R., Mont.), and Brian Fitzpatrick (R., Penn.) are all leading in polls, causing Democratic groups like House Majority PAC (HMP) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) to pull previously-commissioned ad buys.

Some of those funds were redirected to an ad buy worth up to $4 million in New Jersey, where polling consistently shows Rep. Tom Kean (R., N.J.) leading his opponent, former defund the police activist Sue Altman. “Two big wins for Democratic Election Twitter today in their prolonged effort to try to bully Chuck Schumer’s WinSenate to start spending in the #TXSen race and House Majority PAC to start spending in #NJ07,” election analyst Rob Pyers wrote of the buy.

In New York races, Democrats are still spending millions of dollars against Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R., N.Y.), despite some polls that show the incumbent down by double-digits. Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) super PAC, said that Democrats’ spending says more about D’Esposito’s race than polling does; if he were dead in the water, there would be no reason for millions in advertising dollars that could go elsewhere.

“We have [Rep. Nick] LaLota +10 and D’Esposito tied. Based on where D’s are spending millions (D’Esposito) and where they aren’t (LaLota), they clearly see a similar picture,” he wrote. Republicans have told the Reporter that Democrats would be foolish to spend against LaLota — and it appears that Democrats have taken heed. 

In potential tossup districts held by Reps. Fitzpatrick and Young Kim (R., Calif.), Democrats are suggesting that they agree with Conston that the GOP incumbents are undefeatable this year. 

Conston previously noted to the Washington Reporter that “Fitzpatrick is sitting in a Biden district, and they would be foolish to spend $1 against him. Young Kim is in a similar situation.” HMP and the DCCC have not spent a dollar against Kim, according to tabulations by The Downballot, and ad buying records suggest that HMP is throwing in the towel against Fitzpatrick as well, with the organization likely rerouting millions of dollars originally earmarked against Fitzpatrick elsewhere.

In Rep. Bryan Steil’s (R., Wis.) district, HMP canceled roughly half of its $2 million ad buy against the Wisconsin Republican. GOP observers have also noted that HMP is poised to cut substantially from its multi-million dollar reservation made against Zinke, who is ahead even in internal polls published by his Democratic opponent. 

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