Amateurs scoff at the 4-dimensional chess board that President Donald Trump has crafted for foreign policy. He is always several moves ahead of international interlocutors, both our allies and our adversaries. In the first Trump administration, he forced the hands of NATO members to increase spending on their own militaries with an eye toward spending 5 percent of their budgets on their defense.
Lo and behold, European leaders grudgingly admitted, in 2022, following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, that Trump was right and they were glad they had begun to increase their spending, although to date in most NATO countries it still has not reached the 5 percent mark. Also in his first administration he forged his signature foreign policy success, the Abraham Accords — peace agreements between Israel and the Arab governments in the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco.
To a very large extent, it was because of the Abraham Accords that Arab peace partners did not support Hamas and other Iranian proxies against Israel after October 7. Indeed, Gulf countries and Jordan actively shot down Iranian missiles heading from Iran toward Israel in a 300+ missile barrage in April 2025. This never would have happened had it not been for President Trump’s vision of moving beyond peace and to prosperity in a modern Middle East.
We’re seeing his calculations play out again, in real time, in ceasefire discussions with Iran. President Trump has set hard deadlines for Iran to agree to America’s demands that Iran give up its nuclear ambitions, including all enriched uranium in-country, that it stop funding proxy armies and militias in the Middle East, and that it open the Strait of Hormuz to the free flow of international shipping.
For the first time since 1979, Iran is coming to the table to discuss seriously the demands of the United States. And for the first time, fearing that Trump’s words will be followed up by actions, the Iranians are being forced to consider active measures to satisfy the demands of the United States or to face real consequences that will topple what remains of the terrorist theocracy in Tehran.
With the apparent breakdown in negotiations hosted by Pakistan, Trump is back, using American naval power to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
How does Trump’s action impact not just Iran, but China and others seeking to undermine the global role played by the United States?
Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz lays waste to Iran’s ghost fleet strategy of secretly (although not really so secretly) shipping hundreds tankers full of oil to China, India, and other countries in contravention of international sanctions. It also takes direct aim at the BRICS countries that have been desperately searching for ways to undermine the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. China has been happy to buy cheap oil from Iran for two reasons: it’s cheap; and China pays for the oil in Chinese yuan, not in U.S. dollars through which legitimate global oil transactions are made. China has been trying for years to undercut the stranglehold that the petrodollar has had since the 1970s oil crisis, and it has used Iran’s sanctioned oil as a means to direct its yuan into global oil markets as a credible store of value. Now that China’s source of cheap crude is cut off (and it gets 30 percent of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz), it will have to shell out dollars for crude from unsanctioned countries, or even the United States.
Trump’s blockade also has the explicitly stated value as well of redirecting hundreds of empty tankers to the United States to load American crude and to amplify American energy dominance.
Additionally, Trump’s blockade has laid bare the just-below-the-surface discomfort that Europeans have with his leadership. Leaders in Spain, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Greece have all stated that they do not support the blockade, and several do not support America’s war efforts either.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer explicitly stated, in fact, that Britain “would not support the naval blockade and would not be “dragged into” the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran,” an approach that Trump said shocked him given the “longest bond, the longest ally” that we have in the UK. Trump, rather, maintains that he has gotten support from important countries in the Middle East.
President Trump is perfectly capable of walking and chewing gum at the same time. He can probably also juggle as well. America is embroiled in a conflict in Iran that is being ably managed by his military leaders and diplomatic negotiators. America is also able to handle threats from China and other geoeconomic competitors who seek to undermine America’s global leadership. America is able to work closely with friends and allies who support our efforts around the world, and to recognize those countries that stand by us.
This was the case when he established the Board of Peace, he looked for allies who are interested in making real changes that foster peace in the world, not moldy pablum coming from the United Nations. America also recognizes when so-called friends and allies show their true colors. European countries did not support U.S. and Israeli efforts to return hostages and bring a ceasefire in Gaza, choosing instead to fall back on following blindly the word of the UN Secretary General and global “humanitarian organizations.” China openly supported Iran including through shipments of materiel for the war effort.
President Trump plays 4-D chess. He sees what is demonstrated in the wild: leopards do not change their spots. Iran remains the world’s biggest state sponsor of terror, China is a geo-economic adversary, the BRICS want the United States to falter economically, and Europe cannot stand to see America win. He is not surprised by their actions (and inactions) in the face of American leadership. He also shows very clearly a fact that is also demonstrated in nature, an elephant never forgets. And in the game of 4-D chess, President Trump is clearly winning in all dimensions.
Bonnie Glick is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
