Rep. Elise Stefanik (R., N.Y.) is virtually tied in a hypothetical race against Gov. Kathy Hochul (D., N.Y.), according to a new poll conducted by GrayHouse and obtained by the Washington Reporter.

Stefanik and New York’s controversial governor receive support from 40 and 46 percent of voters, respectively. Stefanik’s strong performance is fueled in part by her support from independents — she leads the incumbent 48 to 33 with that crucial demographic.

While Stefanik hasn’t announced her plans to run for governor, both she and Hochul would start off as favorites to win their party’s nominations. Hochul maintains plurality support from 24 percent of Democrats with 55 percent currently stating that they are undecided. Fortunately for the incumbent, none of her poll-tested potential challengers — Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado, Rep. Ritchie Torres, or former Rep. Jamaal Bowman — crack double digits.

Likewise, Stefanik leads potential Republican candidates, Reps. Mike Lawler and County Executive Bruce Blakeman, by a more commanding margin of 44 percent to 7 percent to 5 percent for each Republican, respectively. 44 percent of Republicans are still undecided.

“Hochul is heading into the 2026 cycle extremely vulnerable,” Landon Wall, the pollster, told the Reporter. “With no high-profile Senate race, Trump off the ballot, and the governor’s race at the top of the ticket, voter enthusiasm will decide everything. Hochul’s weak standing with voters, particularly the erosion of support within her own party, could create the perfect storm for the right Republican candidate to make a serious run at governor.”

Hochul’s cratering numbers are fueled in part by the perception that she has governed the state from the far-left. A 49 percent plurality of voters believed that her “political views are too extreme for New York.”

GrayHouse polled 826 registered voters and conducted its poll from April 22nd to April 24th with a margin of error of 4 percent.